DETROIT — During the second inning on Sunday at Comerica Park, Detroit Tigers second baseman Andy Ibáñez hit a line drive into left field. Catcher Jake Rogers, who was on second base, started running immediately.
Rogers read the play well, and in the third-base coaches’ box, Joey Cora, as usual, was waving his arm to send him home.
Cora established his aggressive base-running philosophy early in spring training, telling players, “I’m sending you guys.”
“And he means it,” catcher Carson Kelly said. “That’s something you love. You love having those aggressive plays. You can’t play this game scared.”
In this instance, Rogers rounded third base, almost catching up to Javier Báez, whom Cora had held up at third earlier in the inning after Rogers had doubled.
“I think the only runner Joey has held up this season was Javy on the double that Rogers hit,” manager A.J. Hinch joked later.
As Toronto Blue Jays left fielder Davis Schneider’s throw reached home plate, Rogers slid headfirst, touching the plate with his hand. It was an exceptional base-running display from Rogers, exemplifying a mindset that has been both beneficial and risky for the Tigers this season.
In Rogers’ case, the Tigers scored to extend an early lead, a crucial run in a game that was tied going into the bottom of the ninth. However, Cora’s aggressive sends have sometimes resulted in outs at home plate. The Tigers have made six outs at the plate this season, tied for the seventh most in the major leagues, often leading to immediate scrutiny. Some sends have bordered on reckless.
Early in the season against the Mets, Cora sent Kelly home as left fielder Brandon Nimmo fielded a ball in shallow-to-mid left field, resulting in an easy out at home.
“We’ve got to separate ourselves from safe/out being right or wrong,” Hinch said after that game. “Joey did the right thing. That’s a bang-bang play where they have to make a throw from left field. You are going to see a lot of those around the league. That’s an easy send for me with two outs in a 0-0 game.”
Against the Marlins earlier this month, Cora waved Zach McKinstry home from second base after an errant throw from catcher Christian Bethancourt went into the outfield. Miami center fielder Jazz Chisholm picked up the ball before McKinstry reached third, leading to an out at home.
It happened again Thursday, when Cora sent Kelly home on a ball to right-center. Despite Kelly’s poor secondary lead and his low sprint speed, Cora sent him, resulting in an out at the plate, courtesy of Blue Jays outfielder Kevin Kiermaier, who has one of the strongest arms in MLB.
These decisions have led to criticism of Cora, the Tigers’ first-year third-base coach, a role that requires making quick, in-game decisions. Jim Leyland, the soon-to-be Hall of Fame manager and former third-base coach for the White Sox, often says a third-base coach who doesn’t get runners thrown out probably isn’t very good.
“I think every team should push forward on taking extra bases because it creates so much pressure on the defense and so many different run-scoring opportunities,” Hinch said. “Generally, I think if you look at the teams on bases taken, they are usually the pretty good teams.”
Is Cora too aggressive? Some sends appear to be mistakes, but the Tigers have also benefited from this approach. For example, on April 9 against the Pirates, McKinstry went from first to third on an aggressive send, forcing a throwing error that allowed him to score the tying run. The Tigers rallied to win the game.
Despite the frustration of outs at the plate, the Tigers’ overall aggressive base-running has been beneficial. The FanGraphs metric BsR, which combines stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base-running plays, shows the Tigers are worth 1.1 base-running runs above average, ranking ninth in MLB, despite being second to last in stolen bases.
In terms of taking extra bases, the Tigers are tied for third in MLB with a 47 percent XBT rate. Their aggressive base running may be partly due to their relatively weak offense, which ranks 19th in team slugging percentage and 24th in wRC+.
“The easiest thing to do when you have an offense that’s middle of the pack or below is to ease off or go base-to-base,” Hinch said, “and then the other side has you right where they want you. If you struggle with piecing hits together or having big innings, then be conservative and you’ll have even more trouble.”
Statcast shows the Tigers have added three runs via base running this season, tied for the second most in MLB. The Tigers have attempted to gain an extra base 2 percent above league average.
The numbers show the Tigers’ aggressive base-running style is working, but it raises an interesting debate: Do occasional outs at the plate have to be part of the strategy?
“We talk about the mistakes a lot because we’ve made plenty of them, but you got to train that way to make those good reads,” Hinch said. “It’s fundamental baseball, but you have to risk something.”
