Evaluating the Trade Rumors Surrounding Lightning’s Tanner Jeannot
TAMPA — The Lightning invested significantly to acquire forward Tanner Jeannot near the 2023 trade deadline, expecting him to be a crucial part of their young core.
Now, Jeannot is attracting trade interest as the Lightning seek to clear salary-cap space to re-sign captain Steven Stamkos and finalize a roster that currently includes just 18 players, 10 of whom are forwards, under NHL contracts.
Although there are no definitive reports that the Lightning plan to trade Jeannot, his name is circulating due to his underwhelming scoring output since joining the team. Despite scoring 24 goals as a rookie, Jeannot has netted only seven even-strength goals in 75 games with Tampa Bay.
Known as one of the top fighters and enforcers in the game, Jeannot hasn’t been on the ice enough to meet the Lightning’s expectations. He has missed 30 of 105 regular-season games with Tampa Bay due to injuries, including 25 in a 26-game span in the latter half of this season.
Jeannot returned to play in 13 of the final 15 regular-season games but recorded just one goal and one assist while averaging 10:41 of ice time. In the first-round playoff series against the Panthers, Jeannot was a healthy scratch for Game 2 after contributing just three hits in Game 1, where his team totaled 60. Despite leading Tampa Bay in hits, Jeannot wasn’t a significant physical presence in the series.
Injuries might have prevented Jeannot from showcasing his full potential. However, his $2.665 million cap hit for next season — with unrestricted free agency after 2024-25 — is notable and could be moved to create room for Stamkos and other players.
Salary cap space is required.
After reacquiring defenseman Ryan McDonagh this month and absorbing his full $6.75 million cap hit for the next two seasons, the Lightning have just over $5 million in cap space remaining. This amount may be insufficient to re-sign Stamkos and complete their roster.
Therefore, the Lightning will likely need to offload an existing contract. Trading Jeannot’s $2.665 million cap hit would be beneficial, particularly if the team believes it can find a cheaper replacement for his role. According to salary website CapFriendly, Jeannot has a modified no-trade clause for next season allowing him to submit a 16-team no-trade list, but it likely won’t take effect until July 1.
Currently, teams are observing the later rounds of the playoffs to see how physicality can impact winning postseason games. If a team with substantial cap space needs a physical enforcer — Calgary has been mentioned as a potential destination since it has ample space and is near Jeannot’s native Saskatchewan — he could be a good fit.
Lack of offense
When the Lightning acquired Jeannot, they were hoping for the player who scored 24 goals (21 at even strength) and tallied 41 points in 81 games during his rookie season in 2021-22, rather than the one who managed just five goals in 56 games before the 2022-23 deadline deal. With recent losses in scoring depth, the team has been relying on him to contribute more offensively.
The season before the trade, Jeannot had scoring opportunities and displayed strength in front of the net, with his inability to score attributed to bad luck. However, upon joining the Lightning, he struggled significantly, and then suffered an injury just as he began to acclimate to his new team.
After a full season with the Lightning, it appears that Jeannot’s 24-goal season might have been an outlier. His expected goals that season, a statistic predicting how many goals a player should score based on the quality of chances he creates, was just 16.17, according to the statistics website Natural Stat Trick. He hasn’t come close to replicating his rookie shooting percentage of 19.4%, and he generated fewer scoring opportunities this season (1.41 per game compared to 1.89 as a rookie).
Despite missing 27 games this season, Jeannot led the Lightning with 211 hits, 76 more than the next highest forward (Mikey Eyssimont). While there have been instances where Jeannot’s impactful physical presence has been beneficial, it may not have occurred as frequently as the team had hoped.
Still a fit?
If the Lightning believe Jeannot embodies that type of player, then retaining him on their roster at his current cap hit is a luxury.
Furthermore, aside from the hefty cost to acquire him — involving five draft picks, including a first-rounder in 2025 — his arrival coincided with the departure of center Ross Colton, who was seen as a more well-rounded player. Both Jeannot and Colton entered last summer as the Lightning’s two arbitration-eligible restricted free agents. While the Lightning retained Jeannot, they traded Colton to the Avalanche for a draft pick. However, Jeannot’s contract only extends for one more season, meaning he could potentially leave after 2024-25.
The primary question BriseBois should consider is whether Jeannot truly aligns with his offseason objective to bolster the team’s defensive capabilities. While his on-ice possession metrics were favorable, it was notable that the Lightning opted to bench him for Game 2 against the Panthers, especially considering their deficit in the series, following a cautious approach to ease him back into play during the latter half of the season after his injury. Jeannot appeared to have been acquired precisely for scenarios like those.
Hence, the crucial inquiry for BriseBois is whether he can trade a player for whom he invested significantly, yet who hasn’t had the opportunity of a full season to demonstrate his capabilities. Ultimately, if the Lightning can find a suitor for Jeannot, recoup some of the draft assets they relinquished to acquire him, and free up $2.655 million of cap space for next season, it could present an enticing opportunity too good to overlook.
