An Overlooked Argument Supporting Playoff Expansion
After eight years leading the Georgia Bulldogs and another twelve as an SEC assistant, Kirby Smart has earned his place to weigh in on league matters. He has transitioned from a young, hotshot assistant to one of the league’s elder statesmen right before our eyes.
Perhaps it’s my red and black bias, but I’ve always appreciated his thoughtful and measured opinions on conference issues. Whether discussing the recruiting calendar, realignment, or scheduling, Smart is careful not to overextend himself. He doesn’t speak impulsively, but when he does express his views, it’s clear he has given the matter considerable thought.
This has been evident during this transformative year in college football. Earlier this summer at the SEC Meetings, Smart was asked about whether the league should stick with an eight-game conference slate or switch to nine SEC games. Diplomatic as ever, Smart said he supports whatever approach maximizes SEC teams’ chances in the newly expanded college football playoff.
Admittedly, that’s a somewhat generic response, like saying you want to buy the car with the best features for the price or invest in what brings the best return. However, I sense that Smart believes we’ll see over time (likely in 2024 and 2025) whether aggressive scheduling is worth the risk. If it is, the league will likely move to nine conference games and drop a game against a lesser opponent. There’s no complex strategy to that position.
What also caught my interest was something else he said about scheduling:
“I coached in the NFL for a year and I watch the NFL every year. At the end of the season, a 9-7 record can be playoff-worthy. I’m not saying we’re headed to a point where 9-7 teams are in the playoff, but we’re moving towards a scenario where losing one or two games doesn’t ruin your entire season.”
I don’t think fans often realize how many October/November college football games are influenced by one team knowing their season won’t end in the desired postseason. Going forward, games like a 6-3 Mississippi State versus 8-2 Tennessee will be much more significant for both teams. Such a game won’t just be about impressing the Music City Bowl committee; it will be about staying alive for a #10 to #12 playoff seed.
For top teams like Georgia, this means that teams previously incentivized to pull off an upset now know it could mean a tiebreaker for a playoff spot. I expect fewer players to sit out to protect draft stock on teams ranked between #12 and #30. Additionally, there might be some gamesmanship to impress voters with more style points. After all, there’s a difference between a 34-10 loss to a top-five team and a 31-24 loss. Those who select and seed teams will have to decide how significant that difference is.
If this gives us a few more interesting games on chilly November nights, I’m all for it. Until later…
