“Cruzeiro se despede de atacante: clube anuncia liberação imediata”
Once again, poor discipline is a key factor in our Bet Builder, with the Serie A leaders also leading in yellow cards received and fouls committed. They’ve accumulated over 2.5 cards in 16 of their last 25 matches across all competitions, and with referee Wilton Sampaio officiating, this statistic might increase in the upcoming game. Cruzeiro, currently fifth in the standings, is expected to make this match competitive.
**Leg 2: Over 5.5 cards**
Sampaio has an average of 7.33 cards per game in his six Serie A appearances this season, the highest fouls-per-game rate among referees with multiple matches. I predict the hosts will receive over 2.5 cards, and the total number of cards will exceed 5.5, as Sampaio has reached this threshold in five of his six games.
There are also attractive odds in the player-card market, with some home players seemingly overpriced.
**Leg 3: Danilo Barbosa to receive a card**
Centre-back Alexander Barboza, booked 12 times in 27 appearances this season, is an appealing 9/4 bet. However, I’m opting for the higher odds of 7/2 for Danilo Barbosa to be carded. He’s been booked in seven of his 23 starts and, with Marlon Freitas suspended, is likely to return to the midfield base, putting him up against Cruzeiro’s most-fouled player, Matheus Pereira, who averages over two fouls drawn per game. Given the referee, Pereira is likely to win several free kicks.
**Leg 4: Bastos to commit 1+ foul**
To round out our Bet Builder, I’ll bet on Bastos and Luiz Henrique each committing at least one foul. Centre-back Bastos has committed a foul in 13 of his last 15 appearances.
**Leg 5: Luiz Henrique to commit 1+ foul**
Winger Henrique has committed at least one foul in seven of his last eight starts, and 15 of his last 19 games overall.
